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Note: This article represents the view of the author and not the University of Hong Kong. This article is slightly revised from the speech delivered by the author at the "Seminar on the Road to Democracy for Hong Kong and Macau" organized in Macau on September 10, 2005 by the Union For Construction Of Macau. It mainly explores the future of Macau's democratic development. The Chinese text of this article was published concurrently by Hong Kong Economic Journal on September 13, 2005.
The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong was established in 1991, when direct election was introduced into the Hong Kong Legislative Council. In September 1992, we went to Macau to conduct our first field survey. That year, we conducted the first exit poll for the Macau Legislative Assembly election. One day before, we also set up our temporary office in some hotel rooms, and conducted our pre-election telephone survey.
Despite of the fact that opinion surveys we conducted in Macau largely lagged behind, in terms of its breath and depth, than those carried out in Hong Kong, we still insist that they should be commenced as early as possible. This is because we strongly believe the sentimental development and interactive relationship between Hong Kong and Macau would become much more intimate after the handover to China. The integration of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Macau, Zuhai, or even the whole delta river regions is just a matter of timing.
Conducting opinion surveys in Hong Kong and Macau, and to collect survey data by scientific methods in fact can facilitate the social intelligence, it gives a positive impact to both Hong Kong and Macau or even the future development of the whole China region. If the Central Government and SAR leaders are really working for the people, using opinion polls as a monitoring system towards the government is absolutely feasible.
But what is 'Public Opinion'? Is it an outcome of the universal suffrage, or figures from opinion surveys, or a result of the debates and election among the public opinion representatives? It really depends. However, if we firmly believe democracy and science, we cannot solely rely on the will of the Chief Executive to interpret the public opinions. We have to treat the survey findings with objectivity and rationality, and to consider the development of the whole societal system.
What western societies emphasize is that, apart from the independence of the three powers, independent mass medias appear to be the forth power. This explains the importance of the social middle force. A healthy public opinion system should belong to this power. Macau's middle power seems to be quite weak, whereas Hong Kong's is much more stronger, but not secure enough.
Take an example of the development of public opinion system in Hong Kong; it seems that the mass medias' knowledge and application of the opinion figures still bogged down at ten years ago. What is even worse is that the mass medias accept all types of polling data, regardless if they were unprofessional and unscientific. The reason behind is due to the marketing position of the medias and lack of professional guidelines, hence there is no expectation of any further change. To conduct and monitor the public opinion polling becomes the role of the academics. Whether it is a good thing or not really depends.
Macau's social environment is rather conservative and the traditional influence is very powerful, while the community does not have too many complains or strong oppositions. Therefore, independent mass medias seem to have no impact at all, and it is difficult to gather community forces. Under the political ecology of Macau which incorporates its unique history as a Portugal colony, it seems unresponsive to raise any attention or foster the use of public opinions to monitor the government.
Nonetheless, Macau citizens are not fully satisfied with Macau's democratic development. According to the sampling telephone survey conducted by POP and Union For Construction Of Macau in April, although most of the Macau people were satisfied with Macau SAR government's performance in various aspect, but the satisfaction level towards the pace of its democratic development (48%) still lagged behind economic prosperity (71%), Human rights and freedom (54%) and social livelihood (49%).
In the May survey, 43% of the citizens were satisfied with the political environment, which again, lagged behind economic environment (54%) and social environment (54%). Regarding the rating of democracy level in Macau (6.51), it was obviously far behind the freedom level (7.28), stability level (7.27) and prosperity level (7.16).
It was crystal clear that although Macau citizens do not have too many complains or strong oppositions, they are not yet fully satisfied with Macau's democratic development. Macau's democracy movement may require some leading power from professionals, intellectuals and other middle powers. The path of Macau's democracy does not, and in fact cannot, rely on the objection voices in the society.
From a positive point of view, if democratic development is led by professional power, they can first of all, define what is meant by democracy, why we need democracy, and what kind of democracy the society wants, etc. From a negative perspective, this type of development may lack of a consensual foundation and the participation of the general public. From the idea of 'Macau ruled by Macau people', the way of how Macau develops its opinion polling system really depends on their own decision.
No matter how, the society has to understand that democratic development and opinion polling are not something destructive. Appropriate use of opinion surveys would have a positive contribution to the society as a whole. Even in China, many organizations have already started conducting opinion polls; Macau SAR should not lag behind.
In order to develop an effective and credible opinion polling system, it is important to encourage society's independent voices. In particular, freedom of speech, freedom of academic research, independent medias and professional organizations with international perspectives. In long run, these powers would help the society to progress and become more stable.
Last but not least, the government of Hong Kong and Macau, as well as the general public should understand the advantages of their political and cultural contexts, in order to strengthen their bridging roles between the east and west. Hong Kong society can retain its superiority within the Chinese and English speaking societies, whereas Macau can explore their potentials in Chinese and Latin communities. If China has to connect with the world, they should not be fearful of any peaceful changes. Hong Kong and Macau can take a macro-view of the world by introducing a suitable opinion polling system and standard, so that China can get prepared for their future.
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