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Note: This article represents the view of the author and not the University of Hong Kong.

Over the years, consensus could hardly be reached on the turnouts in every rally and gathering. Generally, both the organizers and police would release their own figure with a great disparity between each other. While the concerned parties are usually unwilling to disclose their counting methods, it has been very difficult for the public to verify which one represents a better approximation. Therefore, we, the HKU Student Research Team, has actively engaged in and learnt from the headcounting projects in these two years in order to: (1) figure out the truth & (2) provide useful information to other researchers. In fact, we do not intend to criticize the counting methods employed by other bodies, and we also welcome any parties to raise questions to our figures.

In this year's June 4 Vigil, we based on past experience and concluded the calculation of the number of participants as following: (1) calculate the number of participants in the pitches by multiplying (a) the population density of a sample area with (b) the areas occupied by the participants; (2) add the sum of participants outside the pitches. The final figure is 36, 000. Details on calculation and raw data will be published on the website of the HKU POP. A brief explanation is as follows:

The HKU Student Research Team arrived 3 hours ahead of the start of the vigil. The team divided into 2 groups. Group 1 measured the area available for participants in each football pitch. Group 2 made 3m x 3m sample squares with cords and fluorescent clip cards on the ground of each football pitch. These preparations made our headcount easier. During the vigil, our researchers counted the number of people in each sample square and obtained the average population density in a sample square of each pitch. Then multiplied the average density with the occupied area, we resulted with the approximation of participants in each pitch. By adding up the results of each pitch, we finally came to the total number. Yet, time and rain limited our research. The team could only collect samples from the 2 pitches most distant from the stage. For the other three pitches closer to the stage, we employed the last year data, which averaged 2.81 persons per square meter. The average is very close to the density we obtained from the fourth pitch this year, 2.83 persons per square meter. By this method, we estimate the number of participants at peak as about 36, 000, with 34, 000 in five pitches and 1800 outside the pitches.

On July 1, we, as last year, set up a counting station on the footbridge at the conjunction of Arsenal Street and Hennessey Road and head count from a height. Since there was a lower-than-before number of demonstrators this year, the police force opened only three westward lanes on Hennessey Road for the demonstration. We dispatched 6 student counters to count the per minute rate of flow of passing on the three lanes and 1 checking counter to cross check those counts. All the student counters took count for 1 minute and then rested for 1 minute and then took count for another minute and then rested for another minute and so on, so forth. The checking counter was responsible for taking one-minute count in every four minutes to cross check the figures. In every half an hour, a statistician would gather all the counting records and process them with a computer programme to project the total number of demonstrators passed within that particular period. In addition, there was a team member taking video and photo records for the demonstration and taking down site records.

According to our counting result, there were 15,000 demonstrators passing our counting station. But this figure did not include those early-leaving and late-comers. Thus, we use the statistics from the HKU Public Opinion Programme as a preliminary adjustment factor. As shown from the data, the adjustment factor for last year was between 1.20 and 1.39. Therefore, our preliminary estimate for the total number of people joined the July 1 demonstration is between 18,000 and 21,000. The final figure would have to be destined with the result of the random sampling survey. The detailed figures on our head count have already been put on the HKU POP Site since July 1.

HKU Student Research Team actively involved in headcount projects in the hope of conducting independent research under no influence of the third party. Our methods may not be perfect, but the bottom line is to develop a high degree of transparency as we release the counting methods and raw data on the briefing session and website. This is what we expect a social research should be. We hope the organizers and all figures reporters would consider our view thoroughly and finally conduct scientific social research contributing to our society.