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Note: This article represents the view of the author and not the University of Hong Kong. Please refer to http://www.unl.edu/WAPOR for international standards for opinion polling.

Chief Executive Donald Tsang unveiled his policy agenda during his first question-and-answer session in the Legislative Council yesterday. In his opening address, he took great length to describe a survey conducted by the Central Policy Unit.

He first explained the function of CPU as a unit which frequently conducts and analyses opinion surveys to assist the government understand public opinion. He then said that according to surveys conducted over the last year or so, Hong Kong people, after April 2004, are most concerned with stability, then prosperity, then freedom, then democracy. Among the four items, stability and prosperity together comprise more than 60% of all responses.

He continued to say that, according to the survey conducted in mid-April this year, among various social issues, Hong Kong people are most concerned with economic problems (nearly 50%), followed by livelihood problems (nearly 30%), and then political and environmental concerns (around 10% for two together). Besides, in terms of various kinds of public policies, another survey in late April showed that, among the 25 issues, the 11 issues which people are most concerned with, in the priority from 1 to 10, are 1) increasing job opportunities and alleviating the unemployment problem, 2) lifting the leading ability of the government, 3) improving air quality, 4) improving public health mechanism, 5) poverty problem, 6) improving relations between the executive and legislative branches, 7) implementing small-class teaching in primary schools, 8) reforming the CSSA system. 9) re-developing old districts, 10) setting up a centralized slaughtering system for poultry and "up and down" bus fare adjustment mechanism. The more controversial topics are "legislating for Basic Law Article 23" (ranked 18th) and "implementing universal suffrage for CE and Legco elections" (ranked 13th). Apparently, livelihood and economic issues are the top concerns among Hong Kong people.

Probably CE Donald Tsang worried the above surveys lacked credibility, and therefore continued to explain that those surveys were conducted by the tertiary institutions commissioned in Hong Kong and thus, were independent studies. Also, he said there were around 1,200 respondents with valid answers in each survey, and he believed that any reliable and professional survey conducted by anyone would have the same result. He also added that any person who suspected their reliability were also welcome to conduct similar surveys individually, as the same results were expected.

The author has kept an eye on how the government quotes and uses public opinion surveys for long. It is believed that the way Donald Tsang quoted the survey figures is a kind of progress, yet far from perfect.

Everyone knows that CPU all along has been responsible for planning different kinds of opinion surveys. In the people-based governance, it is inevitable for the government departments and policy-making bodies to conduct opinion surveys. What the author wants to remind the government is the importance of adherence to the professional code of conduct in the international society when quoting the concerned surveys.

According to the World Association for Public Opinion Research or other bodies of similar levels, anyone who is going to release the public opinion surveys has to provide altogether the details of the concerned studies including research method, contact information, full text of questionnaire, date of survey, sampling method, response rate, weighting method and standard sampling error, etc. Of course, it is unnecessary to disclose any information if the survey is only for internal reference and will not be released. Yet, the government or any organization should neither deliberately release the results of these internal surveys, nor selectively disclose favorable figures and hide those unfavorable to themselves.

Besides, according to the international guidelines, any organization, including the media, government and political party, have to release at least the details such as names of the research agency and sponsoring body, date of survey, target population and sample size when reporting or quoting any opinion surveys. Those media in the western countries which Hong Kong people know well have also released these information when reporting opinion surveys. The local media are irresponsible if they have omitted these information.

Yesterday, Donald Tsang openly quoted CPU's opinion surveys conducted after April 2004 and in mid-April this year. According to the international standard set by WAPOR, this is already a kind of open disclosure. The HKSAR Government now owes the public a responsibility to uncover the details of the concerned surveys so as to clear up any ambiguities.

From what Donald Tsang said yesterday, the above survey was obviously commissioned by CPU. Yet he also explained that those surveys were conducted by the tertiary institutions commissioned in Hong Kong and thus, were independent studies. This has mixed up the responsibilities in the design and execution of the survey, and thus is not in line with the international standard. The author hopes the HKSAR Government can uncover the names of research agencies as soon as possible, and have a demarcation of responsibilities between those of a design body and an implementing body.

The author believes that the surveys quoted by the CE yesterday should not have serious deficiencies in terms of methodology, otherwise the CE would not act in such a high-profile way and claim that same results would be derived from any reliable and professional survey, as well as welcoming all parties to conduct surveys to verify the results individually. Here, on behalf of the research sector, the author would like to demand the government to disclose the full text of the questionnaires adopted in the above surveys, so that improvements can be made through mutual discussion.

It is not unusual for the government to quote opinion figures without details included. This may be due to the people's poor consciousness or the media's laziness. In this aspect, the author is completely disappointed with the previous government and is also unwilling to provide any advice. Yet, while the new government under Donald Tsang wants to establish a new style of governance, with policy objectives basing on public opinions, they definitely should brush off all the past undesirable practices, respect and make good use of opinion surveys. The government needs to abide by the code of conduct when quoting opinion figures in the future. For mistakes committed by the HKSAR Government in the knowledge-wise level in the past, let us treat them as the responsibility of the previous government. The present government seems to have some improvements in this aspect, yet there are still a lot of rooms for improvement in the professional and technological level.

On 11 May 2004, the poll conducted by the Public Opinion Programme shows that, Donald Tsang, the Chief Secretary then, suffered a drastic drop in his popularity rating when he was handling the political reform. At that time, Donald Tsang said he respected and thanked for people's evaluations on him, and he would just take the crticisms and compliments easy. The author has always put these few sentences in mind. No matter Donald Tsang was sincere or hypocritical, his response was at least more modest and appropriate than those of many political leaders or university presidents.

Does Donald Tsang really appreciate the criticisms and respect public opinions? We will have to see how he is going to reorganize the opinion survey work of the government and give play to its professionalism in the future.