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The Research Team on the Study of Referendums, formed by a group of voluntary academics, has almost completed its study on referendums. The Team originally planned to hold a press conference and release its report early this month. However, because of the tsunami disaster in South Asia and the fact that the society is now focusing on disaster relief project, the Team decides to postpone the press conference to mid-February. Thus, this article is written to illustrate to the public the progress and findings of the study of referendum at the present stage.

It is noted that the manpower of the Team is limited: Academic members include Chan Ka Lok, Chan Kin Man, Wong Wai Ho and Chung Ting Yiu whilst supporting team members include Lai Wing Yiu, Chan Siu Ping and Chow Wai Yee. So, it is really difficult to complete the whole research project in two months. Thus, we welcome any advice from the public if inaccuracies or errors are found in this research report. If any person or body has any opinion on referendums, please feel free to express your views in the "Opinion Platforms" at POP site (http://hkupop.hku.hk). Besides, detailed information of the Team is also available at the "Research on Referendums Feature Page" on the website.

Concepts of Referendums

In the Western literature, words such as "referendum", "plebiscite" and "initiative" carry similar meaning, referring to actions which people vote for or against motions which concern the public. However, the mechanism of "plebiscite" was once abused by Nazi and Fascist rule and was thus stigmatized. "Referendum", on the other hand, is a more common term. Nowadays, Hong Kong society tends to use the Chinese word Gong Tou to represent "referendum". The team believes that the word Gong Tou can easily be associated with the "defensive referendum" put forward by Chen Shui-bian in Taiwan, and thus, in order to avoid any unnecessary debates, we propose to use the word Quan Min Tou Piao instead of Gong Tou as our terminology in this research.

Research findings reveal that in democratic societies, there are generally two ways for people to take part in policy decision-making and to give their governments legitimacy. The first way is direct democracy such as referendums; the second one is indirect representative democracy such as regular parliamentary meetings and presidential elections. The Team asserts that both direct and representative democracies are useful systems in materializing equal political rights of people and they are not mutually exclusive in nature. Besides, both direct and representative democracies can become a standing and reciprocally complementary political setting in the present political systems. And the outcome of either referendum or popularly elected government is to objectively reflect people's wills.

Experiences show that during the course of democratization, both reformist power and conservative power value the use of referendums. On one hand, reformists hope to make use of referendum to win public support for introducing reforms. On the other hand, conservatives believe referendum can reflect majority view on seeking stability, which is advantageous to maintain the status quo or neutralize the demand from reformists. Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the former president of the Soviet Union, also made use of referendums to ask his people whether it was necessary to preserve the Soviet Union to be a newer federal state in 1991.

To conclude, referendum is not necessarily a tool to experience peoples power and consolidate peoples sovereignty, it can also be a maneuver adopted by politicians to pursue prerogatives or special power. Even in non-democratic countries, rulers have often made use of or even abuse referendums as so to demand public support for their policies or systems.

Development and Classification

Since 1970s, the number of referendums held by countries from all over the world has been increasing. While this upward trend is obvious in Switzerland and European countries, the pace of development of referendums in other regions is relatively slower. Although a lot of countries base referendums on constitutions, there are also some other countries, which have no constitutional basis for referendums, introduce consultative or legally-binding referendums. Generally speaking, the use of direct democracy is to complement but not replace representative democracy. In Britain and other North European countries, referendums can only be initiated by governments or parliaments. On the other hand, in Switzerland, Italy and several states in the United States, voters have the right to initiate referendums on constitutional and policy reviews. The following provides a way to classify referendums:

1. Classify according to applied regions:
   National level; regional level; community level
   
   
2. Classify according to motions:
   Motions related to disputes over territories among countries, or controversies on the autonomy of a region within the sovereign country; motions on constitutional reforms; motions on policies or ethical issues
   
   
3. Classify according to initiating bodies
   Official bodies or government initiate; legislative branch initiates; civic organizations or citizens initiate
   
   
4. Classify according to legal status:
   Legally-binding; consultative or for reference

According to the above classification method, there are at least 54 types of referendums. In consideration of the present local debate on referendums, the Team must point out that referendum, a system that provides people with the direct way to participate in policy making, is highly varied in nature. Therefore, it is unwise to focus the discussion of referendums on one specific type and eventually limit the room of development of referendums.

Pros and Cons of Referendums

Pros: (1) Referendums can embody the common notion of "People rule", and people's wills become the final arbitration of any serious and publicly concerned debates. (2) Referendums allow every voter to express their views directly and clearly. They can contemplate the concerning motion and take part in policy making actively and responsibly. (3) When compared with usual public opinion polls, referendums put more emphasis on the importance of rigorous thinking and reflection. (4) Referendums complement but they do not replace representative democracy. As a standing mechanism but no frequently activated, they can help to remind governments and parliaments of the centrality of their people. (5) In a political environment lacking in legitimacy, political leaders and even the civic society may use referendums to gain legitimacy for their political system or policy objectives. (6) Referendums are in fact part of a healthy political process; both political leaders and people can use referendums to resolve misunderstandings and conflicts.

Cons: (1) In order to reach certain goals, political leaders and civic organizations can use different means to distort and manipulate public opinions. If the content, time arrangement and even the results' interpretation of referendums are not properly handled, the outcome of referendums will only reflect the will of the initiator but not the people's true will. (2) It is difficult for the government, interest groups or media to remain neutral at the interface of affirmative and negative sides of the motions. They may mislead the direction of debates and in turn deteriorate the democratic nature of referendums. (3) The degrees of public interests and participations in different social issues are different. Therefore, in the course of the referendums, people's ability to participate in discussions and handle relevant information is often being questioned. (4) The majority choice and preference are not always the best decision. In addition, referendums turn complicated political issues to a zero-sum game which is not good for cooperative allocation of interests. (5) The results of referendums are unpredictable and uncontrollable. A genuinely fair and open referendum brings risks to both the affirmative and negative sides of the concerned motion. (6) Referendums can weaken the representative government and directly elected political bodies, and in turn lower the quality of policies. Even worse, referendums may boost populism and bring the risk of "popular tyranny"

Preliminary Conclusion

Whenever a referendum is activated, its definition, classification, pros and cons and suitability are debated. The Team does not assert that referendums can always revolve conflicts on policies or political systems. But we suggest that Hong Kong should learn a lesson from the experiences of other countries so as to make referendums favorable to people's direct expression of opinions towards important social issues. Therefore, we will further suggest and list a series of principles and procedures regarding the system. This allows the government and interested civic organizations to have some rules to follow and sets the realm and procedural arrangement of referendums.

Before we make the related suggestions, we welcome anyone to give us comments through the "Opinion Platforms" at POP site.