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Note: This article represents the view of the author and not the University of Hong Kong.

The Legislative Council election is over and commentaries are flooding in. Because the author has always been more concerned with public opinion, this article will use opinion survey findings as a tool to carve a winning-for-all path for the future development of the Hong Kong civil society.

To begin with, what opinion survey finding means is not equivalent to detailed and in-depth public opinion analyses. Due to the fact that counting from the deadline of the Legislative Council Election nomination to the close of the election, the University of Hong Kong Public Opinion Programme (HKUPOP), which is directed by the author, has carried out rolling polls for 37 consecutive days and accumulated 16,785 voter samples. In the Legislative Council election exit poll, 9,223 people who have voted were successfully interviewed, together with another 998 partially completed cases; the total sample size is nearly 27 thousand people. Although it is not possible to have these analyses discussed in this paper, the author would rather pinpoint a few phenomenon discovered from the survey together with some personal opinions and presented them to the audience.

After the election, it was known that the pro-democracy camp failed in vote allocation in the Hong Kong Island and led to the victory of Martin Lee who won with high vote as well as the failure of Ho Sau Lan Cyd who lost but also with high vote. The result has rapidly become a discussion topic among the general public. The author has analyzed the rolling polls conducted by the HKUPOP, and found that the recorded vote of confidence of Audrey Eu's list was 22% in the final round survey results between 7 and 9 September, whereas 19% for Yeung Sum's list and 10% for Ma Lik's list. Even due to the movement of the stray voters to one side in the last few days, or because of vote allocation of Rita Fan's supporters, the support rating of Ma Lik's list has a sharp increase. No matter what has happened, there is no pressing need for Martin Lee to make any serious announcement or action about the situation. Of course, it would be another story if the Democratic Party grasped special information or carried out public opinion survey themselves, and these information were more accurate than the findings of the author. Nonetheless, the fact is the support rating of the two pro-democracy camp lists in later phase of the election should be fairly equally distributed.

To be an objective opinion survey researcher, the author is not required to understand the electoral engineering of any political parties or campaign strategies, nor to appreciate or feel sorry about the election outcomes. However, the author very much encourages all political parties and election candidates to conduct scientific public opinion surveys, so that their administration policies and campaign strategies are built on a scientific foundation.

Although Ho Sau Lan Cyd lost her position in the Legislative Council, she won the support and sympathy of both the in- and out-groups, and in fact this is the revival or re-birth process that brings us to a new democratic sentiment. Moreover, Cyd Ho suddenly becomes a famous Legislative Council member of the Kwun Lung constituency who opens a new era for the pro-democracy camp. Other than her basic duties, she should also lead in more new thoughts and styles about how to construct independence and democracy in the society, and should also carry out community reformation in collaboration with other Legislative Council members. This is the only right path she should choose.

The second phenomenon to be noted is the victory of James Tien Pei-chun who won with high votes. From the opinion surveys conducted by the author on a regular basis, the rise of James Tian is due to his opposition towards the of Article 23 of the Basic Law in the last second and the avoidance of a possible chaos. James Tian and Selina Chow Liang Shuk-yee were both elected, meaning that those political parties for the workers and businessmen can also be known by the public. Once this rule exists, the capacity of the Liberal Party is suddenly enlarged. In long run, this would help to reduce the conflicts between the laborers and business people, whereas the worries of the commercial world towards democracy would also be eliminated. The equilibrium positioning of the Liberal Party can shorten the distance between the pro-democracy camp and the pro-China camp. Hence, the Liberal Party should fully make use of this favorable advantage.

Now take a look at the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), the success of the election strategies has strengthened the party without doubt. After the 1 July rally, DAB has been distressed for a very long time by wandering between the local citizens and the Central Government. This election has voiced out the demand of the public towards the General Election in 2012 which is quite welcoming. Not only DAB's own supporters, but also supporters from other parties do not have any objection about this. The election is over, if DAB can continue to relieve the conflicts between the people and the Central Government in China by playing a bridging role between the two and marking a clear boundary with the pro-China camp radicals, its popularity must increase substantially.

On the other side, the successes of 'Long Hair' Leung Kwok-Hung and 'Tai Ban' Albert Cheng in the election are both out of our expectation. From the results of the exit polls, the supporters of Leung and Cheng are the most dissatisfied group with the Hong Kong SAR government. In particular, Leung's supporters have the highest number of participants in the 1 July rally. From these it is predicted that voters expect Leung and Cheng to play an opposing or even a rival role in the Legislative Council meeting. 'One Long one Tai' is believed to be the focus of the mass media very soon. From the positive side of it, these two people can still enter the institution, meaning that the political system is not yet closed. Although political affairs are overbearing, citizens can still have the ability to fight against it. Thus, the system is not thoroughly closed yet.

The big winners of this Legislative Council election should be some members of the Article 45 Concern Group. Their success should be due to their professional image. Other groups that are similar to them include the pan-democracy camp or the neo-democracy camp council members. They can compensate the ageing of the old Democratic Party and get new members into the Council. The Central Government has fewer conflicts with the neo-democracy camp; therefore they would have a larger room for negotiation. As a political group, or similar political parties, the popularity of the Article 45 Concern Group is always at the top list from those public opinion surveys. They should be able to make further accomplishment by making use of this current advantage and achieving new and rational compromises.

While talking about compromises, in the author's 9‧12 exit polls has shown that although universal suffrage was vetoed in 2007 or 2008, more than 60% of the voters agreed that it would be the right time for the direct elections of the Chief Executive in 2012. Among the pro-democracy supporters, 70% of them agreed, while there are 55% Liberal Party supporters said so. Interestingly, 43% of the pro-China camp supporters also had the same opinion. Regarding the general election of all Legislative Council members, again, more than 60% voters believed that this should be legitimated in 2012. 68% of the pro-democracy supporters and 51% of the Liberal Party supporters agreed, while 41% of the pro-China supporters had the same opinion about this issue. In other words, about 60% voters supported universal suffrage in 2012, more than 40% of the pro-China supporters also agreed. This expectation has become a common concept in the society, and also a new communication ground between the Central Government and all Hong Kong SAR political parties.

Nonetheless, a bleak prospect was developed during the 9‧12 election process that some solutions are of pressing need. First of all, the combination of strategic electoral engineering and mechanical vote allocation has become the key to define winners and losers in the election. A simple consideration of voting and expression of stance starts to lose its meaning. Second, more negative news are reported and the focus of the voters has been shifted to the candidates' character and personality. Thirdly, some news medias have become dirty news collectors, and their target range has expanded to public policy think tank, opinion survey units and academic organizations. It is known that independent academics, journalists, think tanks and opinion survey units are foundation and system helping the society to become more liberal. To attack and blacken these organizations would only injure the civil society.

The last development that attracts serious attention is that some political parties are frequently conducting exit polls as part of their electoral engineering. Originally, everyone can do exit polls, but in fact these political parties are deceiving the respondents about their true intentions, and camouflaged their activities under the name of research by collecting relevant information at the No Canvassing Zone outside the polling station without telling the voters. This can be regarded as a cheating act to both the voters and law enforcement departments.

9‧12 election broadens the horizon of Hong Kong's politics and builds a new foundation for the multi-dimensional society. However, if the society wants to develop a healthy system for multi-facet democracy, different parties have to protect and establish its supporting mechanisms and founding institutions for a democratic society.