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Note: This article represents the view of the authors and not their respective universities.

The 2003 District Council election is officially over, but relevant issues about the election are still very much alive. Issues include the role of the mass media, the functions of the District Council, the development of Hong Kong's political system, the effect of the July 1 demonstration, the performance of the SAR government, and the rise and fall of the political parties.

Changes in Hong Kong's political ecology are reviewed by the voter turnout, and the success and failure of various political parties and candidates. But if we want to do more detailed analysis, data from scientific survey are needed. As in the past, the Hong Kong University's Public Opinion Programme did a large-scale polling station survey in this District Council election, and much useful data were gathered. The Director of the Programme, Dr. Robert Chung, has kindly allowed the author of this article to use the election data, upon which this article is based.

This article hopes to use the survey data to learn more about some widely concerned issues. The answers may be similar to what we already have in mind. But the scientific data can clarify the issues, do away with misunderstandings and contribute to reaching consensus.

Media Important But Not Most Important

The first issue is about the role of the mass media in the District Council election. Some people think that the media in Hong Kong have tremendous influence. For example, the media instigated the public to join the July 1 demonstration. In this election, the media supported the democratic camp and this was unfair to other candidates. Cyd Ho Sau Lan parachuted into the Kwun Lung district and narrowly defeated Ip Kwok Him. Apart from the help by a group of high-profile barristers, the media might also have contributed to Cyd Ho's success. Is this view has any truth to it? Let us take a look at the data from the survey.

Table 1 shows the various channels from which the voters came to know about the candidates they chose. Initial results from 1,389 respondents were tallied for the territory-wide election, and the complete data from the Kwun Lung district and Kam Ping district were included here. Overall speaking, the most important channel through which the voters knew about the preferred candidates was campaign materials and election forums. The mass media were the second most important channel. The third channel was personal contacts with the candidates and their helpers. Finally, having been a councilor also helped.

When we look at the media categories, newspaper and magazine had a share of 11% while television had 10%. The radio had only 1%. It is clear that the print media and the electronic media split evenly in terms of their influence. In the Kam Ping and Kwun Lung districts, Leung Kwok Hung and Cyd Ho in fact were helped by the media in spreading their messages to the voters. Choy So Yuk also had a certain amount of media coverage. But Ip Kwok Him and Wong Shing Kwong did not get much coverage.

Hong Kong University's Public Opinion Programme also put substantial amount of research resources into the districts of the Peak, Mei Foo South, Ping Shek, Lok Tsui, Fo Tan and Tai Shui Hang. Results indicate that not all candidates in the democratic camp got media's attention. In terms of the media channel figures, Ho Chun Yan got 21%, Lam Sum Shing 9%, Joe Wong Tak Chuen 9%, and Chan King Fai also had 9%. Only Richard Tsoi Yiu Cheong got an exceptionally high figure of 48% and his coverage was mainly from the print media (while Leung Kwok Hung's coverage was from television).

Faced with the task of covering so many electoral districts, the media had to pick and choose. Only the political heavyweights and the districts which were either fiercely competitive or carried political significance would be able to attract media's attention. The media would first consider candidates' news value. In contrast, their political background or views was not major factor. Cyd Ho, Leung Kwok Hung and Richard Tsoi were exceptions rather than the rule. Other candidates from the democratic camp were not as "lucky." Furthermore, the political spectrum as exhibited by the Hong Kong print media is so wide and it is impossible to imagine that the newspapers would join hands to support one side and attack the other. On the other hand, the electronic media had to observe very strict guidelines set by the Electoral Affairs Commission. As a result, obvious biases were absent. In fact, media coverage is a double-edged sword. Muckraking journalism is usually more attractive than positive portrayal of candidates. Voters can surely decide for themselves after receiving information from various channels. Thus, we can say that the media have much influence but not as great as some would imagine.

Voters Keen on the Election's Political Significance

The second issue is about the major factors considered by the voters when they cast their votes. From Table 2, 60% of the District Council voters chose livelihood policies as the primary factor, but close to one-quarter considered candidates' political orientation. The survey also asked voters about whether their decisions were based on individual candidates or individual political parties. The percentages were 54% and 28% respectively (not shown in Table 2). It is clear that political orientation or party affiliation was influential but not the most important factor. Leung Kwok Hung and Cyd Ho were exceptions as their political petitions clearly outweighed their livelihood policies.

Among the respondents, 29% of them did participate in the July 1 demonstration. Those who voted for Leung Kwok Hung and Cyd Ho were more likely to have participated in the demonstration. These voters also thought that the July 1 demonstration increased people's likelihood to vote. More than 80% of the respondents called for the Chief Executive to be popularly elected in 2007, as well as for all the Legislative Councilors in 2008. For those who voted for the democratic camp, this proportion was close to 100%. Overall speaking, close to 60% of the respondents were not satisfied with the SAR government's performance. Those who were satisfied constituted less than 10%. Again, for those who favored candidates from the democratic camp, more than 80% of them were dissatisfied with the government.

From the above figures, although the public still cared very much about livelihood policies and candidates' past performance, more and more voters were concerned about the candidates' political orientation, and they clearly stated that the July 1 demonstration was an influencing factor. More people asked for democratic reform and they called for speedier one-person-one-vote elections for the Chief Executive and all the Legislative Councilors. Some of them cast "protest votes" because they were unhappy with the SAR government's performance. Extrapolating from the data, if Wong Shing Kwong did not enter the race, Leung Kwok Hung could have beaten Choy So Yuk.

Youngsters and Middle Class Stressed Democratic Call

The third issue is about who actually voted for the democratic camp. As expected, among the supporters of Leung Kwok Hung and Cyd Ho Sau Lan, there were higher percentages of youngsters, those with religious belief, higher education level, professionals and managers. Some of them made up their minds of how to cast their votes within a few days before the Election Day, and their decisions were leaning towards the democratic candidates. What can we learn from this District Council election? Due to the fact that more youngsters and middle class people came out to participate in this election, as a result (1) the voting percentage was pushed up, (2) the democratic camp gained more seats, (3) these voters called for more democracy, and (4) a clear warning signal was sent to the government and its allies.

Table 1: Voters' Channels of Knowing the Candidates

Table 2: Voters' views towards Political Issues and Governance